Market Barometer - Market Summary and Forecast

Market Summary and Forecast Technical Barometer
( The current MSF Technical Barometer is available only to current subscribers)

The inside score improved further and stands at a neutral -2. The outside score was unchanged at a bearish -6. This is the second week of a -6 reading. They do tend to come in clusters prior to a final peak in price but this is sell signal number six since September 2000 without an intervening +4 buy signal.

Current:-2, -6

as of 04-04-03

Current Technical Barometer					Parameters
Indicator	Reading	Score			Bull		Bear
1. Ten day A/D	+1912	0		-	-4000		+4000
2. Ten Day Net Volume (millions)	-83	0		-	-1,500		+1500
3. Open Ten Day ARMS Index	1.14	0		-	1.25		.92
4. DJIA vs 30 Day Moving Average	+3.57%	-		-	3% below		3% above
5. OEX Put/Call Ratio (10 day moving average)	1.12	0		-	1.28		1.01
6. CBOE Put/Call Ratio (10 day moving average)	.87	+		+	.86		.65
7. Investor's Intelligence Bulls/Bears+Bears (10 week moving average)	.57	0		-	.46		.66
8. Insider's Sell/Buy Ratio (8 week moving average)	1.89	0		+	1.09		2.59
9. Mutual Fund Cash to Asset Ratio	4.3%	-		-	12.0%		9.0%
10. Fed Funds vs Discount Rate	133%	-		-	103%		125%
The inside score is calculated each Friday afternoon following the close for the week. Each indicator on the inside score is rated as either positive, neutral or negative. The outside scores are ranked as either positive or negative with no neutral reading at all. An indicator that is ranked as positive will remain positive until it turns negative. This can occur at anytime, not just on Friday�s close	Totals
	Positive		1			2
	Neutral		6
	Negative		3			8
	Net		-2			-6

Historical Technical Barometer and Sentiment Model

Technical Barometer Outside Score

Chart as of March 28, 2003

The outside score has issued its sixth sell signal since the September 2000 peak. The arrows mark the point in the S&P where the initial signal was issued. One look at the chart and one can see that while the market did move higher after the initial signal was issued the price gains have been minimal.

Technical Barometer Inside Score

Chart as of March 28, 2003

The inside score is the short-term component of the technical barometer.

The inside score issued a sell signal the week ended March 21. it looks timely. The last bottom was accompanied by the weakest signal of the post 2000 decline. Note where the inside score was at the September 2001 and even the October 2002 low versus where it was in March

Sentiment Model

Chart as of February 7, 2003

The sentiment model is comprised of 12 key sentiment indicators. It ranges from 0 to +24. A reading of 7 or lower is bearish and 14 or higher as bullish.

The sentiment model has moved up to within striking distance of a bullish signal.