June 15, 2009: We have seen some deterioration in some of our shorter-term indicators. These indicators are in position to set up the first decent correction since the March low. This will still require confirmation from price, which we do not have at this point. We do not see any weakness from current levels as developing into a full out correction that the majority are looking for but instead a correction that will consume time rather than price. Bonds are in position for a decent bounce over the short-term but a bounce that is part of a still incomplete medium-term decline. Gold is in the early stages of a decline that could ultimately pave the way for a move to or through the April low      

May 26, 2009: The worst case we see for stocks over the short-term is for some additional sideways corrective behavior prior to the post March rally reasserting itself. However, the likelihood of a continuation of that rally now with a sideways correction getting underway further up the road is a very likely development. In either case, the bullish medium and long-term outlook remains unchanged. The bonds look to be in the latter stages of the decline that began in February but this decline is not over and lower prices are expected. Gold is overbought short and medium-term. This along with a rapid rise in bullish sentiment point to the strong likelihood that the rally from mid April is in the late stages and a reversal is close. 

May 11, 2009: The stock continues to fool the majority who are looking for a deep correction or worse a resumption of the bear market. There may be some corrections along the way but we expect them to be short and shallow with the market following with higher prices. In other words the market has a good deal of unfinished business on the upside. The bonds are oversold very short-term and could bounce. But any rally should be viewed as part of a still incomplete decline. The rally in gold may have a little more to go over the short-term but it does look to be a counter trend pattern that when complete will lead to a resumption of the pots February decline. 

April 13, 2009: The stock market continues to fool the majority as it has continued to rally in spite of a very negative fundamental backdrop. The market is behaving in a similar manner as it did coming off the March 2003 low. We expect that any corrections that occur form current levels will be minor in both time and price and that any surprises will most likely be on the upside not the downside. The bonds look to be in the early stages of a third or "c" wave from December which will lead to a break of the late February low. Gold looks to be in the middle of a large "c" wave from mid February. It may bounce very short-term but the potential for an acceleration of the decline from late March is strong possibility.             

March 30, 2009: The vast majority are looking or a deep test of the March 6 low or at least a deep pullback. The market rarely accommodates the majority. We may get some further correction or consolidation. The deep overbought condition generated on the recent rally suggests that any near term weakness will be modest and fairly well contained and will be followed by a continuation of the post March 6 rally. The bulk of the rally in bonds is behind us and should be followed by a continuation of the decline from December and a move below the late February low. Gold looks to be in the midst of some sort of consolidation/correction. A move below last weeks low would confirm that a deeper decline related to the October-February rally was underway  

March 16, 2009: The current rally looks to have further to run over the very near term but once complete it should be followed by a move back below the early March low. This would complete the finishing touches of a medium and long-term bottoming process. The bonds are in a trading range short-term and could break in either direction. We expect the resolution of that range to be short lived and over quickly. Gold is at an important juncture in all time frames. A move higher will keep open the potential for the post November rally to unfold in impulsive fashion while a break of the recent lows would not only invalidate a bullish Elliott pattern but also break an important medium-term trend line.

March 2, 2009: The stock market is displaying all of the characteristics of the late stages of a bear market. We do not think that the bottom is yet but we do see that as being close. a sharp increase in intra day and daily price swings is expected to develop over the next several weeks as that process unfolds. The bond market is a bit oversold very short-term, which could lead to a bounce. But any bounce or rally should be viewed as part of a far from complete medium-term decline. Gold looks to be in the middle of a small fourth wave correction from December. The decline does not look complete but once over it should be followed by a resumption of the post November rally.    

February 9, 2009: The stock market may have some unfinished business on the down side in the form of a deeper test or marginal break of the November 21 low. Given the position of the medium and long-term indicators if this is to occur it will happen sooner rather than later. This would also serve to strengthen further an already bullish medium and and long-term technical backdrop. The bonds may rally a bit over the very short-term to relieve a minor oversold condition. But any rally from current levels should be viewed as part of a still far from complete decline from late December. Gold may correct a bit over the very short-term within a still far from complete medium term pattern. Any weakness is expected to be fairly well contained and followed by an acceleration of the current rally.    

January 26, 2009: Short-term we can not rule out the potential for a deeper test or a minor new low as the market puts in the finishing touches of a medium and long-term bottoming process. The bonds are oversold very short-term and may rally but the decline from late December is not complete and any rally that may unfold over the very short-term should be followed by lower prices. Gold has allied to near very important chart and Fibonacci resistance in what may be the beginning of a third wave acceleration.   

January 12, 2009: Short-term there is the potential for a test of the November low but if that is to occur it should happen sooner rather than later. The medium and long-term position of the market continues to strengthen with the next move of significance developing for an upside acceleration. The bonds may rally a bit more short-term and even move back toward the late December peak. But the real risk in this market remains down as they complete a epic blow off. Gold is mixed with the short-term a bit negative while the medium-term remains positive.

December 29, 2008: The stock market over the next couple of weeks will continue to be highly influenced by seasonal factors and end of year activities. There is a case to be made for one last shot to the downside to near or slightly below the late November low to complete the bottoming process that bean in October. If this is to occur it should happen sooner not later and be followed by a dynamic rally. The bond market is in the process of completing a massive blow off similar in scope to the technology blow off in the spring of 2000. Gold looks to be in the beginning of a third wave acceleration from the late October low. Any weakness near term should be fairly well contained.  

December 8, 2008: The stock market is in the final stages of completing an important medium and long-term bottom. This may involve some further tests of or even a modest break of the late November low as part of that process. The bonds are in the late stages of a serious blow off the likes of which we have not seen since the technology bubble of 2000 .Gold is in he late stages of the wave 2 decline that began in March. A minor bounce may unfold early this week but that is expected to be very brief and followed by a move below the late October low.

November 17, 2008: We expect that the decline is not over and that lower lows are likely in the days ahead but that any further weakness from current levels will serve to further strengthen the bullish medium and long-term technical backdrop setting the stage for a significant advance next year. The bonds may rally a bit further over the short-term but a move below the June low is still our minimum expectation. Gold looks to be in the late stages of  a large second wave from 2001. Although most of the damage is likely over a move below the late October low is still expected

November 3, 2008: The stock market looks to have completed its first in a series of tests of the October 10 low, a process we expect to carry on for several more weeks as part of an important long-term bottoming process. The bonds look to be close to entering the acceleration phase of the post September 16 decline. Any rally over the very short-term should be viewed as a selling opportunity Gold looks to be in the late stages of what we see as a second wave from 2001. The majority of the priced damage has been done but the pattern does not look complete.

October 20, 2008: The next several weeks should see more extreme price swings leading to several tests of the October 10 low and most likely one if not more lower lows to complete an important medium and long-term bottom. Bonds are oversold short-term. This could lead to a rally very short-term. But any rally that may develop from here should be viewed as part of a still incomplete decline that is expected to carry below the June low. Gold is also oversold short-term and in a position to rally. The nature of this rally will be important in determining whether the September lows will hold.

October 6, 2008: The market looks to be in the late stages of the decline from last October. This should produce further volatility as the bottoming process unfolds. This should lead to a dynamic rally once the bottoming process is complete. The bonds look to be in the early stages of an important decline that is expected to carry below the June low. Gold is giving off mixed signals from and Elliott, sentiment and momentum perspective and for now the best course of action is no action.  .  

September 22, 2008: The market looks to have made an important low last week. We can not rule out some weakness/consolidation early this week to correct some of last weeks late gains. At the same time, last week looks to have completed an important low setting the stage for a strong medium and long-term advance. Bonds looks to have completed a blow off top commensurate with a capitulation low on stocks. They may bounce a bit early this week but they look to have considerably more to go on the downside. Gold has rallied right up to important Fibonacci resistance. We expect some consolidation over the short-term but the positive momentum and sentiment backdrop argues for higher prices once the short-term consolidation is over.    

September 2, 2008: The market may pullback a bit over the near-term but this should be viewed as an opportunity not the beginning of a new leg or wave to the downside as the market puts in the final touches to complete a medium-term bottom. Bonds look to have completed an important top and are early in a decline that should carry prices below the June low. Gold looks to have completed an important low in mid August and is in the early stages of an important rally that could ultimately lead to a move above the March high

August 18, 2008: The rally that began in mid July looks to have a lot further to run. Any weakness this coming week may have some negative implications to the detailed Elliott wave pattern but is likely to be short lived and followed by a resumption of the post July 15 advance. The bonds look to have a bit further to run over the very short-term to complete the counter trend rally from June. This should be followed by a resumption of the January decline leading to a move below the June low. Gold is very oversold and close to completing a large corrective pattern from March. This should lead to a multi week/month rally.

July 28, 2008: The market looks to be in the beginning of an important medium-term advance that should carry prices above the May high and potentially challenge the October 2007 peaks Bonds may rally a bit very short-term but that should lead to a resumption of the post July decline and a move below the June low. Gold looks to be in the midst of a bottoming process from March but looks to need some further work short-term before challenging its all time high seen in March.

July 14, 2008: The market looks to be in the late stages of the post May decline, a decline that is also completing a bigger decline from October. We expect to see additional volatility in terms of price as part of the late states of a bottoming process. While we see further weakness over the near-term,  this should lead to a dynamic rally that will take the majority by surprise. The bond market looks to have completed an important counter trend rally and is in the early stages of a decline that is expected to move below the June low. Gold looks to be in the early stages of a large fifth wave that should lead to new highs above the March high 

June 30, 2008: A sharp rally looks close at hand. This should be followed by one more lower low to complete an important medium-term bottom setting the stage for a dynamic rally that is expected to carry the averages well above the May high. The rally in bonds from mid June does not look complete but is close. Once it is over we expect to see a resumption of the post January decline leading to a move below the June low. Gold looks to be in the midst of a rally that is expected to carry prices well above the May high.

June 16, 2008: The decline from mid May looks to be in the latter stages but not yet complete. Once complete a resumption of the post March rally is expected to carry the S&P above the May high. The binds may bounce very short-term but the decline from both January and March do not look complete and lower prices are expected. Gold is oversold and could bounce. The nature of any rally from current levels will be an important clue as to whether Gold can challenge the late May high or the early May low.     .

May 5, 2008: Last weeks rally left no doubt about the bottoming process being confirmed as complete as the S&P not only broke above important resistance but also a downtrend line connection the October and December peaks. The fact that the rally is still being met with a high degree of skepticism only adds to the bullish implications of last weeks breakout. The bond market remains in the midst of a short and medium-term decline that is expected to move below the mid February low. Gold is oversold short-term and in a position to rally. Although there has been some improvement in both sentiment and momentum the decline from mid March does not look complete and any rally that does unfold should be viewed as part of a still incomplete pattern from mid March.

April 21, 2008: The rally late last week has completed the bottoming process that has been in play since late January. Any weakness short-term should be well contained and be viewed as part of a strong medium-term advance. Sentiment indicators remain solidly bullish providing the "wall of worry" necessary to support the rally. Bonds may bounce early this week but both momentum and sentiment are negative and the decline last week is only the beginning of a strong medium-term decline. Gold too may bounce but any rally should be viewed as part of an incomplete pattern from March 17 that is expected to lead to a move below the April 1 low.

April 7, 2008: The bottoming process that began in late January is nearly complete setting the stage for the continuation of what we see as the middle portion of a solid medium-term advance. Bonds remain stuck in neutral but look to be getting close to an important top. Gold may bounce very short-term but the decline from March 17 has further to run. 

March 24, 2008: The stock market is either at or near a very important low. While we can not rule out one more minor new low, the next move of importance should be up and come as a big surprise to the majority. The bond market is giving off mixed signals but does look closer to a top than not. The break last week in gold looks to be the start of a solid medium-term decline. We can not rule out a bounce soon as it is oversold short-term but the decline is clearly not over.

February 19, 2008: The market is in the latter stages of a medium-term bottoming process. This process may involve a move to new lows below the January 23 low but the next move of significance is expected to be up not down. This rally will either be the first rally in a new bear market or the last rally in an old bull market. Sentiment on bonds remains extreme and momentum both short and medium-term are negative leaving the bond market in a position for its worst decline since at least 2005-2006. Gold looks to be in the middle of a sold medium-term decline expected to take it below the late January low.

February 4, 2008: The rally of the past week or so has generated strong initiation type momentum readings typical of the initial stages of a new medium-term advance. Any weakness near-term should be well contained and viewed as part of a new solid medium-term advance. Sentiment in bonds is extremely negative and short-term momentum has turned down suggesting that bonds are in the early stages of a short-term decline that could spill over to the medium-term. Gold looks to be in the beginning of a solid medium-term decline that is expected to carry prices below the January 22 low

January 22, 2008: The market has gotten off to its worst start in January in 92 years. It is stretched short-term and a sharp snap back rally can unfold at any time. Although this snap back rally could be very sharp it should be followed by further weakness prior to a more sustainable advance. The bonds are overbought short-term and sentiment is excessive. They are in a position to correct but any weakness should be viewed as part of a still incomplete rally from late December. Gold looks to be in the early stages of a fourth wave correction that should lead to lower prices over the next several weeks. 

December 31, 2007: The trading range from July does not look complete but is close. The ultimate resolution should be up sending the DJIA and S&P to new highs, a move that should be the last hurrah for the bull market. Bonds may rally a bit short-term but as part of a still incomplete decline from late November. Gold looks to be in the midst of a post triangle thrust that should lead to new highs on the short-term. 

December 17, 2007: On a very short-term basis we can expect to see a bit more weakness as part of a correction related to the November 26-December 11 rally. This should be followed by a resumption of the rally from November 26. Bonds are oversold short-term and could bounce. But any rally from here should be approached as part of an incomplete pattern from the November high. The correction that began in early November in gold does not look complete but once it is it new highs are expected. 

December 3, 2007: Very short-term we see the potential for a correction but any decline that may unfold should be short lived, and well contained and followed by a continuation of last weeks rally, which should ultimately lead to a move above the October highs. Bonds are overbought short-term and sentiment is bordering on extreme setting the stage for a short-term correction but a correction that looks to be part of a still incomplete rally. The decline that began in early November on gold does not look over and a move below the recent lows is expected.

November 12, 2007: Short-term the market looks to be close to completing the post October decline that should lead to a resumption of the post August medium-term advance. The rally in bonds looks to be the last wave up from September not the start of a new wave or leg. Gold is over done very short-term and could correct but any near-term decline is most likely part of a still incomplete pattern from late October.

October 29, 2007: Short-term can go either way and a move below last weeks low can not be ruled out. However, any weakness should be viewed as being within the confines of a still very much in tact medium-term advance and not the beginning of a more serious decline. The bond market has turned negative short-term and a move back towards the late September low is a strong possibility. Sentiment on Gold is excessive but the yellow metal also looks to be in the midst of an extended fifth wave that does not look complete.

October 15, 2007: Short-term the market is in a position to correct but any correction from current levels should be viewed as part of a still incomplete medium-term advance and will be followed by higher prices. Bonds may rally very short-term but this should be viewed as part of an incomplete decline from early September. Gold is facing excessive sentiment and deteriorating short-term momentum. While the rally from early October may have some life left in it, the upside short-term looks limited suggesting a decent correction is close at hand. .

October 1, 2007: The potential for a small correction early this week is possible but if it does materialize it should be well contained and over quickly with the bullish short and medium-term patterns reasserting itself in short order. The bond may rally a bit more but it is a rally within a still incomplete short-term decline. Gold looks to be on the verge of a decent and possibly sharp short-term decline as part of a still incomplete but mature medium-term advance.

September 17, 2007: Short-term the potential for a move below last weeks low can not be ruled out. But if that does occur we expect it will be short lived and be followed by a resumption of the bullish medium-term rally. Bonds look to be close to a short-term correction but a correction that is part of a still incomplete rally. Gold, like bonds looks to be close to a short-term decline as part of an incomplete rally that should lead to new highs.

September 4, 2007: Very short-term we can see a minor correction on stocks but the momentum behind this rally is strong enough that any correction from here should be over quickly and lead to higher prices. The rally on bonds does not look complete but they do look to be on the cusp of a correction. Gold is either in the late stages of a rally or the early stages of an important decline. In either case the next big move looks to be lower not withstanding some additional gains over the very near-term 

August 20, 2007: Was last weeks late rally another one or two day wonder or the beginning of a more important rally?. Both the wave structure and the indicators can support either but for now we want to give the benefit of the doubt to some additional rally over the near-term and how that rally unfolds, if it unfolds will be key to whether a strong medium-term rally will develop. The bonds are up against important Fibonacci resistance, and a move above that resistance should set the stage for further gains. The relative weakness in the gold stocks does not bode well for gold arguing that an important top was seen in late July

August 6, 2007: Short-term the market is in a position to rally. A failure to do so would be extremely negative. The bonds are overbought and can correct at any time but should be viewed as being part of a still incomplete rally from June. Gold is either on the verge of a breakout to new highs or a move that will ultimately lead to a move below the June 2006 low. For now we need to see how things develop this week.

July 23, 2007: The decline late last week left a failed breakout from mid July and along with  pathetically weak momentum and participation has turned the short-term outlook bearish with a move back to the June lows likely. The short-term rally in bonds remains in place and higher highs are expected over the short-term as part of a still incomplete but mature medium-term decline. Gold has moved to to what we deem a very important inflection point, a point that will either confirm or reverse the bearish potential. 

July 9, 2007: The rally from late June has left the S&P near the top end of a five week trading range. While we can not rule out a positive resolution of this trading range, the weight of the technical evidence points to an ultimate move below the low end of the range. The decline from early July in bonds looks to be part of an incomplete rally from late June that should lead to a move above the July 2 high. Gold looks to have a bit more life in it short-term but any rally is likely limited and should be followed by a resumption of the post April decline.

June 18, 2007: The short-term oversold rally looks to be close to complete and should be followed by a move back below the June 7 low. Bonds are in their best position to rally on a short-term basis since January but any rally as good as it may be is part of a mature but incomplete medium-term decline.

June 4, 2007: Over the very short-term the rally from late May does not look complete and higher prices are expected. Unlike the majority we do not see this rally as the beginning of  new medium-term advance but as the last leg of the rally from mid March. Once complete the potential for the most severe correction since March 2003 will be in place. Bonds look to need a bit more work on the downside but the majority of the post December decline looks to be complete. Gold looks to have completed its correction from April with the bullish pattern from January back in force.

May 21, 2007: Short-term the rally that began in mid March does not look complete but does look to be in its final stages. Once complete a decent decline should get underway that will most likely lead to one last rally to complete the post October 2002 bull market. Bonds look to be near the end of their decline from February. There is a potential for a small bounce from current levels but that should be followed by lower lows. Gold is at or near an important juncture that should very well define the next important move.  

April 30, 2007: Short-term the rally that began in mid March looks to be on its last legs and once complete the biggest decline since January-March 2003 is likely. This should lead to one last rally and the completion of the post 2002 bull market. The rally from early April in bonds does not look complete but still looks to be a corrective advance related to the February-March decline. Gold looks to be in the early stages of wave .2 of 3 from March and once complete a continuation of the rally from both March and January to new highs is expected.

April 16, 2007: Short-term stocks look to have more to go in the rally. The quality of the March low was not up to par with previous medium-term lows of the past few years suggesting that the current rally will not be nearly as strong in terms of price or duration. Bonds may rally over the short-term but the decline from February does not look complete and a move below the January low is likely. gold is in the early stages of a third wave. There is a possibility of a minor correction but the rally from March is far from over.

April 2, 2007: The short-term is mixed for stocks as we can make both a bullish and bearish case. While it is possible that the rally from mid March is the beginning of a new medium-term advance, the majority of the indicators  do not support this view but instead argue that the rally is all of or most of a strong counter trend affair that will be followed by lower lows. The bond market is under pressure short-term with the potential to move below the late January low. gold should correct in what is best counted as wave 2 of iii. This should lead to a surge as wave 3 of iii unfolds.

March 19, 2007: The market is in a position to rally over the short-term. But any rally that may unfold is part of an incomplete decline from late February and will be followed by lower lows below last weeks low. The bonds remain within their big trading range that began in June 2003. This pattern has not been resolved and looks to need more work before it is finished. Gold has moved back to test an important breakout level. A little more backing and filling is likely over the short-term. The bullish medium outlook has not changed but it could be tested this coming week.

February 26, 2007: The bearish wedge that has been in place since November continues to contain prices. It looks to be near the end but not yet complete allowing for one last run to the upper end of the pattern. Bonds very short-term can go either way but the rally from late January does not yet look complete so any weakness from current levels should be minor in scope. Gold looks to be in the early stages of a third wave acceleration within the early stages of a post triangle thrust.

February 12, 2007: The bearish wedge that has been in place since November does not look complete but does look to be in its final stages. Once complete the stage will be set for a medium-term decline if not the beginning of a new bear market. Bonds are in no mans land with sentiment. momentum and wave structure giving off mixed and conflicting signals. Gold looks to be in the early stages of an Elliott post triangle thrust that will lead to a move above the May 2006 high

January 29, 2007: Since late November the S&P has been in the midst of tracing out a bearish rising wedge. While it is possible that this pattern completed last week it is not confirmed. As such we want to give the benefit of the doubt to the idea that while close one final rally is in the cards before the pattern is complete. Nonetheless, the market looks to be on borrowed time. Bonds are oversold short-term and could bounce but the post December 1 decline does not look complete. Gold looks to have broken out but needs a bit of a pullback very short-term. The nature of any correction from current levels will tell us whether the breakout is real or false.

January 16, 2007: Short-term we can make both a bullish and bearish case but the bullish case has a slight edge favoring the idea that the rally from last week's low and the post July advance is not yet over. At the same time, the post July rally looks to be significantly closer to its end than beginning while the momentum picture remains negative. The bonds may bounce very short-term but the decline from December 1 does not look complete. Any bounce should be followed by a continuation of that decline. Gold and the HUI are close to resolving the pattern and trading range that has been in effect since May of last year. Our expectation is for a positive resolution but some further weakness cannot be ruled out..

December 26, 2006: This coming week has historically been positive for stocks. However, rally or not this week the decline from last week does not look complete. While it is possible that last week saw an important top we are giving the benefit of the doubt to the idea that while in its later stages the rally is not yet over. Bonds may bounce very short-term but both sentiment and short-term momentum suggest that any bounce from current levels is part of a still far from complete decline from early December. Short-term the decline in gold does not look over but it is getting closer and once complete the medium-term rally should get back into gear.

December 11, 2006: Short-term a decline below the November 28 low looks to be underway. This decline should be viewed as part of a still incomplete but mature rally from July. The bonds look to be in the early stages of a short-term decline. Gold also looks to be in the early stages of a short-term decline that is part of a larger bullish medium-term pattern.

November 27, 2006: Sentiment continues to weaken and momentum remains pathetic and the combination is consistent with the late stages of a rally. The missing ingredient is price, which has refused to confirm the negative technical picture and until it does the rally has to be respected. We would view any weakness from current levels as part of a still incomplete pattern from June. We are neutral short and medium-term. Sentiment and short-term momentum favor a near term correction on gold which should be viewed as part of a larger rally

November 13, 2006: Sentiment continues to weaken and momentum remains pathetic and the combination is consistent with the late stages of a rally. The missing ingredient is price, which has refused to confirm the negative technical picture and until it does the rally has to be respected. We see the bonds as being in the middle of a corrective rally from May (June). We see ant weakness from current levels as being part of that corrective rally. Short-term gold looks to be in need of a correction but further strength this week would turn the weekly indicators positive.

October 9, 2006: The market is giving off all of the classic signs seen in the late stages of a bull market. Short-term the rally does not look complete but it does look to be closer to over than not. Short-term the bonds look to be in the early stages of a decline. We do not see this to be more than a correction of the rally from June. We expect this decline once complete to lead to a move back above the recent highs. Sentiment and short-term momentum are in a position to support a decent rally short-term on gold but a failure to rally early this week could abort the potential positive readings. Medium-term the decline from May and July do not look complete.  

September 18, 2006: The market is in a position to correct some of the rally from June. Any decline from current levels should be treated part of a still incomplete rally from those lows that will lead to higher prices. This rally in turn should be treated as the final act of the post 2002 rally. The bonds look to be in the early stages of a near term correction within an incomplete rally from June.  Gold is deeply oversold very short-term and in a position to bounce. The nature of any rally from here will be important for the medium-term. 

September 5, 2006: Short-term the latest rally has set off a number of negative signals but there is still enough on the positive side to favor higher prices. We see this rally as the last gasp in an aging old bull market and part of a longer term topping process. The next move of significance will be lower. The bonds look to be close to a short-term decline but a decline within a still incomplete medium-term advance. Gold needs a bit more work short-term but is showing a lot if signs that precede a strong medium-term rally.

August 21, 2006: Short-term the outlook slightly favors modest new highs in some of the averages completing the last leg of the post 2002 rally. The medium and long-term outlook remain steadfastly bearish with the next move of significance setting up for the downside. The medium-term outlook for bonds is continuing to improve but short-term the risk of a correction is high. We expect Gold to move below its late July low in what may be the completion of a complex correction of the June-July rally

August 7, 2006: Short-term the market can go either way and what we see early this week should set the tone. Whether the S&P has one last higher high in it or not, the medium and long-term picture continues to deteriorate. The next move of significance looks to be down. The bonds are in their best position to rally on a medium-term basis since last November. Gold is close to resolving the trading range from May-June.

July 24, 2006: The short-term picture for stocks remains mixed but guarded as the market has consistently failed to take advantage of what has historically been bullish signals. The wave structure does allow for one last run above the May highs but the medium and long term signals strongly suggest that time is running out. The bonds look to be in the middle of a trading range between the May high and June low. Gold is mid way between its May high and June low keeping it neutral for now.

July 10, 2006: Short-term the market is in a small range between the June 14 low and May 8 high. The indicators can support a move in either direction equally. Until the weight of the evidence shifts or the range is resolved we have to stay neutral. Medium-term we do see the potential for as move above the May high but see that move, if it does occur as the end of the post 2002 counter trend rally. The bonds are in a position to rally but need to hold above the May low. Gold may be in the middle of a short term trading range between the May high and June low.

June 19, 2006: Short-term the market is in a position to rally. A failure to do so would be very bearish. While the rally, if it does unfold has the potential to make modest new highs in some of the averages, we see it as nothing more than the last wave up from the October 2002 low. A move below last weeks low would confirm that the post 2002 rally was over. The bonds are at a critical juncture. Further weakness would turn the indicators down and set the stage for a continuation of the post June 2005 decline. Gold is oversold short-term and could rally a bit further over the near-term. But any rally from here looks to be part of a still incomplete decline,

June 5, 2006: Short-term the rally from May 24 looks to have more to go. We continue to see this rally as a correction of the May 8-24 decline and when complete a move below the May 24 low is expected. The January decline in the bond market looks to be complete or close to it setting the stage for a decent counter trend rally. Gold is deeply oversold short-term and along with a bullish divergence in the gold stocks is in a position to correct the most recent decline

May 22, 2006: Short-term the market is in a position to rally The rally could be very sharp but should be viewed as being a reaction within a still incomplete decline from May with lower lows to follow. We see the bonds as being in the same position as stocks with any rally from current levels as being part of a still incomplete pattern from January. Gold too is in a position to rally very short-term. But like the others, any rally from here should be approached as part of an incomplete pattern from mid May.

May 1 ,2006: The short-term is inconclusive and can support both a continuation of the rally from April or a decline. The medium and long-term picture has not changed. We continue to see behavior consistent with the last phase of a bull market early phase of a bear market. Although the odds favor the idea that the rally is not over, the upside is limited and the downside risk is huge. The bonds hit an important internal support level last week and are in a position to rally a bit over the near-term. We are approaching the rally as a reaction within a still incomplete medium-term decline. Gold looks to be near the end of the rally from March but has generated enough momentum to support more upside before a meaningful decline gets underway.

April 17, 2006: Short-term the oversold condition suggests a bounce is possible but once complete should lead to lower prices. The medium and long-term picture continues to deteriorate in typical late cycle style. The bond market may rally a bit but the decline from both January and June of 2005 are not over and any rally from here will lead to lower prices. The rally in gold does not look complete but does look to be closer to over than not.

April 3, 2006: The short-term picture is mixed and can support both a continuation of the rally or a decline. This is all going on within the confines of a seriously deteriorating medium and long-term backdrop that points to the post 2002 rally as being close to if not already in its terminal phase. The bonds are in a position to bounce short-term but any bounce should be viewed as being within the confines of an incomplete decline. The latest rally in gold does not look complete but it also looks to be the last wave of a bigger pattern.

March 13, 2006: We are approaching the rally from last Wednesday as a bounce within a still incomplete decline from late February/early March. Once complete a move back below last weeks low is expected. The potential for this to turn into more than just a short-term decline is the highest we have seen in at least two years. The bonds may have a bit of an oversold rally very near-term but the decline from both June 2005 and January 2006 have not run their course. Gold is slightly oversold very short-term so a modest bounce is possible but a bounce from here would be within the confines of an incomplete short and medium-term decline.

February 27, 2006: The short-term looks as mixed as we have seen in a long while with last week forming what may be viewed as a tight trading range on the S&P. This is also called an indecision pattern. The indicators can support a move in either direction and we will just have to wait and see how this unfolds this coming week. Medium and long-term the market remains in the late, no make that the very late stages of the post 2002 rally. The next move of real significance will be to the downside. The bonds are at the lower end of important Fibonacci support, a break of which would turn the short-term and most likely the medium-term negative. Gold looks to be near the end of a counter trend rally from the early February high that should lead to a move below the Valentines day low

February 13, 2006: The decline that began in mid January does not look complete and lower lows are expected. Whether this turns into a full blown medium-term decline is not yet clear but the odds of this happening have increased exponentially. The longer-term out look remains extremely bearish as we continue to see all the classic signs of a market in the very late stages of a rally/early stages of an important decline. The bonds are at an important juncture. A rally this week would likely set the stage for a challenge of the mid January peak while a decline would confirm the next wave down from June 2005 was underway. The decline last week in gold  looks to be the beginning of a medium term correction within the later stages of a long term rally

January 30, 2006: Short-term the technical picture is as mixed as we have seen in a very long while and can as equally support a rally as a decline. However, the medium and long-term picture remains firmly in the bearish camp and is typical of a market near the end of a longer term move about to enter a reversal. The bonds are near important short-term support, a break of which would likely confirm that the next wave down from June of 2005 was underway. Short-term gold is close to a top but has not yet been confirmed. Medium and long-term gold looks to be in the late stages of a classic blow off but a blow off that is not complete  

January 17, 2006: The rally in early January generated enough momentum to expect higher prices over the short-term not withstanding a modest correction. It has also generated a number of short-term divergences along with multiple long-term divergences, which continue to point to a market in the late stages of the bull run from October 2002. Bonds look to have more to go very short-term but are closer to the end of the rally from November than the beginning. Gold looks to be in the late stages of a rally but a rally that does not look complete.   

January 3, 2006: Short-term decline that began on December 14 does not look complete and any rally from current levels should be viewed as counter trend. Whether there is one last gasp rally to new highs or not after this decline runs its course the post 2002 rally remains on its last legs and should give way to a bear market shortly. The bonds are slipping a bit but remain bullish on the short-term  within the confines of what is best viewed as a correction of the June-November decline. The decline in gold from the December 12 peak does not look complete. This decline is best viewed as being within a still incomplete but mature medium and long-term rally from February or perhaps July.    

December 12, 2005: Short-term the rally looks to be in its late stages but we have not seen enough to confirm that it is over. and until that occurs the potential for the rally to extend will remain.  Medium and long-term the evidence continues to mount that the post 2002 rally is in ion its last legs.  The bonds have enough short-term positives to expect the rally to continue but the rally still looks to be part of a still incomplete medium-term decline. Gold is moving into a blow off stage but a stage that is clearly not over.

November 28, 2005: Short-term we do not see the rally as over and would view any weakness as minor. Medium and longer-term the market is exhibiting all of the characteristics of a rally in its very late stages. We see this rally as the last gasp in a tiring bull run. The bonds have enough short-term positive to expect the rally to continue but the rally still looks to be part of a still incomplete medium-term decline. Gold looks to be the late stages of the rally from February but a rally that does not look complete.  

November 14, 2005: The rally is beginning to look tired but the market to its credit has not reacted to the bearish potential signaled by the indicators. This is a plus and will remain so until these divergences are confirmed by the averages. A deeper test of the August high for the S&P and even marginal new high is possible. Short-term the bonds are in their best position since early August to rally. Any rally is still best viewed as being part of a still incomplete pattern from June but the rally looks to have the potential to be pretty decent. Gold has rallied very close to an important near term resistance point. This weeks action should be important to the short-term as further strength would likely set up for a marginal new high while weakness could set the stage for a mover back below the November low.    

October 31, 2005: Short-term we think the rally that began on October 13 has not run its course but it is also counter trend structure. This along with the deep oversold readings from the momentum indicators in mid October among other things points to lower prices after this rally ruins its course. The bonds are in a position to rally short-term but a rally that is part of an ongoing medium-term decline. Gold looks to be in the patter stages of a rally that should lead to the biggest decline since the 1999 low.   

October 17, 2005: Short-term the market is deeply oversold. This and the short-term sentiment indicators support the possibility that a decent counter trend bounce is close. These same momentum indicators have also hit levels consistent with lower prices on a medium-term basis and once any bounce runs its course lower lows are expected. The bonds may be in a position to bounce soon but both the short and medium-term picture remain bearish. Gold looks to have completed a short-term top and is close to confirming a medium-term top but has not yet done so    

September 19, 2005: We continue to focus on the strong likelihood of new highs in the S&P above its August peak. We see this as a short-term affair and likely the final price of the puzzle to complete the topping process that began early this year. Further strength early this week would confirm that this move is underway now. A failure this week would set up for a move below last weeks low prior to that final rally attempt. The bond market looks to be in the early to middle stages of a decline that is expected to carry below the August low. gold has moved to new highs and looks to be in the middle of a blow off but one that does not look over.     

September 6, 2005: The rally late last week has carried the S&P to important short-term resistance but also locked in some bullish divergences. This rally looks to be the beginning of the last wave up to complete the entire post 2003 pattern. However if this is correct there is little room for weakness this coming week. Long-term the evidence continues to mount that the post 2003  counter trend rally is on life support and that the next leg down in the post 2000 secular bear market is close to unfolding. The bonds are stretched and sentiment has weakened significantly. This implies that the recent rally is well past its prime but a sell signal is still not in force so the potential that the rally can extend needs to be respected. Gold has rallied to important resistance with still excessive sentiment consistent with important tops.  

August 22, 2005:  Our call for a lower low below the August 8 low was satisfied last week. The potential for a bounce is in place very short-term but we do not see any rally from current levels as more than a correction of the recent decline to be followed by another leg down. In either case, the market is in the late stages of the post 2003 rally and at or near an important top. The rally in bonds is counter trend but does not look complete. Sentiment in gold has reached excessive levels consistent with important tops.  

August 8, 2005: Very short-term the deep oversold condition can support the possibility of a bounce. But that same deep oversold condition also tells us that any bounce from here is temporary and part of a fairly new short-term sell signal. On a longer-term basis the indicators continue to deteriorate at a rate that fully confirms that the market is in the very, very late stages of the post 2002 counter trend rally. The bonds are oversold short-term and are in a position to rally. This rally should lead to a failure and a move back below recent lows. Gold may have a bit more to go over the near term in its rally but the evidence continues to point to the rally as being the last wave of a counter trend pattern from February

July 25, 2005: Short-term the market can go either way but the indicators do support a move to the downside. We do not see any weakness from current levels as the beginning of an important decline but only as a correction of the rally from July 7. This should be followed by further gains as part of a more important medium and long-term topping process. The bonds are in a position to rally short-term but any rally from here will likely lead to a more important medium-term top. Gold and the gold stocks should rally a bit more short-term but within the confines of a medium and long-term decline.      

July 5, 2005:  The decline that began on June 22 does not look complete and a move below last weeks low is expected. This can occur now or following another rally back above last weeks late high. Whether this leads to a full blown medium-term decline or is only a correction of the April-June rally is too early to say The long-term indicators continue to paint a very negative picture that the market is in the late stages of the post 2002 cyclical bull market or the early stages of the next phase of the post 2000 secular bear market. Short-term the bonds are bearish and a move below the mid June 4 low is expected. Gold looks to have completed its rally from mid May and is resuming its post March decline. 

June 20, 2005: Last weeks move to new post April 20 highs does not look complete and further gains short-term are expected. We see the strong likelihood that the averages will move above their March and or January high but we also see this as the final touches on the post 2002 rally. The bonds are bearish short-term and lower prices are expected. Gold and gold stocks look to have a bit more to go in their rally but sentiment is beginning to shift quickly back to bearish. 

June 6, 2005: Short-term the market is in its bet position for a correction since early May. We do not see any decline as being the beginning of a sustainable medium-term affair but only short-term and it should be followed by another rally. We also do not see this rally as being nearly of the same caliber as what we saw last August or October but more in line with the January-March rally. The bonds are in a position to correct over the short-term due to excessive sentiment and overbought indicators but any initial decline should be well contained and lead to higher prices. Gold is in a position for a decent rally within the confines of a long-term negative picture. 

May 23, 2005: The momentum backdrop is mixed and weak while sentiment is still somewhat favorable but also weakening. We continue to see the post April 20 rally as as a correction of the March-April decline but a rally that does not look complete. Momentum and sentiment are beginning to weaken on the bonds, not to the point of turning bearish but they are closer. Gold remains bearish but a shift in relative strength from gold to gold stocks may be getting close

May 2, 2005: Short-term the market is in a position to rally. We do not see this rally, if it does unfold as more than a short-term affair not a sustainable medium-term advance. The bonds are looking weaker short-term but not enough to suggest a turn is at hand. gold looks ready to resume the post March decline.

April 18, 2005:  We do not see the decline from last week as over but it is more likely that the market is closer to a decent bounce rather than an all out collapse. However, bounce or not the decline from March 7 does not look over and lower prices are expected. How this unfolds will tell us whether we have one last gasp rally or if the post 2002 rally is over. The bonds look to have more to go over the short-term but within the confines of a counter trend move related to the decline from mid February. Gold and gold stocks are in a position to rally short-term but any rally should be viewed as a correction of the mid March decline.

April 4. 2005:  Short-term although being tested sorely we want to give the benefit of the doubt that the rally from last week has more to go. Medium-term the decline from March 7 is not over and rally or not lower prices are in store. This should lead to a final last gasp rally to complete the post 2002  cyclical bull market. Bonds look to have more to go over the short-term but within the confines of an incomplete medium-term decline. Gold and gold stocks are in the early stages of the next wave down from their November (stocks) and December (gold) peaks.

March 21, 2005:  Short-term the market is oversold and along with positive short-term sentiment the potential for a bounce is high. However, any bounce from current levels should be viewed as only a bounce within  a still on going medium-term decline. Long-term the market is giving off all the classic signs that the rally is in its mature phase. The bonds are in a position to rally over the short-term. The medium-term is improving but still bearish. The counter trend  rally in gold is at or near its completion with the post December decline close to resuming.

February 28, 2005:  The rally generated enough short term momentum to favor higher prices and a move above the early January high. We do not see this rally as being any where near the quality of what we saw from October to January but as the final leg of that rally. Bonds are either at the beginning of the next leg down from the June 2003 high or the final stages of the post June 2004  counter trend move. The rally in gold remains a correction of the December-February decline but does not look complete.

February 14, 2005:  The rally from January 24 has moved the S&P within striking distance of its January 3 print high. We see a 50/50 possibility that those highs will be exceeded prior to a move below the January 24 low. We also see this as the completion of a larger rally from August on the S&P. The bonds have generated enough momentum to look for higher prices after an initial decline. However, sentiment is excessive and points to sharply rising risk seen near the end of a bigger move. Gold and gold stocks look to be in their best position for a strong  counter trend rally since their fall tops. This rally is if occurs should be the first correction of a larger decline.

January 31, 2005:  Very short-term we see the potential for a solid bounce to correct the decline from the January 3 high prior to a resumption of the decline Whether this turns into a full blown medium-term decline is not yet clear but the evidence is mounting that this may very well be the case The bond rally is probably not over and a test and even modest breach of the March 2004 high is likely. Gold is at an important point short-term  with a move through 432 allowing for a bigger correction of the post December decline. Medium and long-term basis we see both gold and gold stocks as being in the early stages of their biggest decline since the 1999 low on gold and 2000 low on gold stocks.

January 18, 2005:  Very short-term we see the potential for a solid bounce to correct the decline from the January 3 high prior to a resumption of the decline Whether this turns into a full blown medium-term decline is not yet clear but the evidence is mounting that this may very well be the case The bond market rally the past two weeks has rallied enough to reverse our latest sell signal and move us back to neutral. Gold and gold stocks may have a bit more bounce left but on a medium and long-term basis we see both as being in the early stages of their biggest decline since the 1999 low on gold and 2000 low on gold stocks.

January 3, 2005:  The stage is set for a fairly big move in stocks. The direction of that move could very well dictate the outcome for the next several weeks. Momentum and sentiment support a bearish case that would be confirmed by weakness early this week. The bond market still looks to be in the early stages of a medium-term decline. There is a little room to rally but not very much. Gold and gold stocks may have a bit more bounce left but on a medium and long-term basis we see both as being in the early stages of their biggest decline since the 1999 low on gold and 2000 low on gold stocks.

December 13, 2004:  The short-term indictors are mixed and can support a move in either direction. However, unless the market rallies and does so in dynamic fashion early this week the odds will favor more corrective action short-term. Medium-term we do see higher prices but view the post August rally in the S&P not as a  continuation move but a completion move of the cyclical bull market. The bonds look to be in the early stages of a correction of the May-October rally. Last weeks big break on gold and the gold stocks looks to have confirmed that the May rally is over. We see the strong likelihood that both are in the early stages of their biggest correction since the 1999 low on gold and 20000 low the gold stocks.

November 29, 2004:  The strong momentum generated in early to mid November implies that the rally is not over although over the very short-term some further consolidation or minor corrective action is possible. The bonds look to have completed a top in mid October but any decline should be a correction of the post May rally. Gold and gold stocks look to be in the very late phases  of their post May rally but until this is confirmed we have to remain neutral.

November 15, 2004:  Short-term we do not see the rally as over but do think we have seen the best of it and are likely in the latter stages. The strong momentum readings suggest that the first correction will be fairly well contained in terms of both price and time and argue for higher prices. The bond market looks to be in the early stages of a medium-term decline. We continue to see both Gold and the gold stocks as being in the final stages of the post May rally.

November 1, 2004:  Short-term the rally looks to have more to go and a move above the October high is expected. This should  be viewed as the second and final leg of the post August advance not the beginning of a new leg to carry past the March highs. The bonds look to be in the latter stages of the rally from May but that has not been confirmed as complete. Gold and the gold stocks look to be in the later stages of the May counter trend rally.

October 18, 2004:  The decline that began on October 6 is not complete and following any initial bounce lower prices are expected. We do not think that this is the beginning of a full board medium-term decline on par with June-August, at least for the S&P but only a decline related to the August-October rally. The bonds look close to a short-term decline but need to move below 112 basis the December futures to confirm. The gold stocks and gold look to be in the late stages of their counter trend rally from May This rally may be complete but this has not yet been confirmed but it is close.

October 4, 2004:  The rally late last week has generated enough momentum to suggest higher prices short-term and the potential for a deeper challenge of the March high on the S&P. However, we do not see the ingredients necessary to allow for a successful and sustainable break of the March high. The bonds have turned bearish short-term but have not confirmed one way or the other whether the expected decline will lead to a medium-term top. We see the HUI as being in the latter stages of a large "B" wave rally from May.

September 13, 2004:  The market is in a similar position as it was in early June. The potential for a modest correction is in place but any weakness from here should be followed by a continuation of the rally. The bonds look to be in the final stages of a wave 2 rally from March but the rally cannot be confirmed as complete at this time. The gold stocks are in the latter stages of a large "b" wave rally that began in May. We do not think that the rally is complete but it does look close.

August 30, 2004:  A number of indicators point to the potential for a modest correction to begin at anytime. We do not see this potential correction as anything more than a minor interruption of the rally from August 13. Once any correction is complete higher prices are expected. The counter-trend wave 2 rally in bonds looks to be in its final stages with wave 3 from March lurking in the background. The gold stocks look to be in the latter stages of a large counter trend rally that began in May.

August 16, 2004:  Short-term the market is in a position to rally but needs to take advantage of that set up. A failure to do so would have very negative implications. We do see the potential rally to be the best one of 2004 but do not see enough from the indicators to support a move to new 2004 highs but only a very strong counter trend affair. The bonds look to be in the latter stages of the counter trend wave 2 rally from March.  the rally does not look complete but does look close. The gold stocks remain bearish short and medium-term but any strength early this week would set the stage for a move back above the May-July high.

August 2, 2004:  The short-term rally that began last week does not look over but is still nothing more than a short-term rally within a negative medium-term framework. A move below the may low has been delayed but not cancelled. The bonds remain in a counter trend ally but a counter trend that does not look complete. The gold stocks look to be in the early stages of the next wave down from either April or January.

July 19, 2004:  Short-term although a bounce is possible at any time, the path of least resistance is down. and a move below the May lows remains our forecast and minimum expectations before a rally of consequence may have a chance to unfold. The bonds remain in a wave 2 rally from March but a rally that does not looks complete. The gold stock rally from May remains in force short-term but also remains a corrective "b" wave and once complete should lead to a move below the May low.

July 6, 2004:  Short-term we can see the potential for one last rally but the outlook is deteriorating fast. The rally remains corrective and one last fling or not the next big move in price should occur to the downside with a move back below the May low. The bonds are in a wave 2 rally from March. This rally is not over but it does appear to be in the latter stages. The gold stocks remain positive short-term and should challenge their late  May high. Once complete a move back below the May low is expected.

June 21, 2004:  We continue to see the rally from the May low as a strong counter trend affair related to the post March decline. We do not see this as the beginning of a new medium-term advance. We do not see the rally as over and expect a bit more upside over the short-term. Once complete a move back below the March low remains our expectation. The bonds remain in a counter trend wave 2 rally from the March peak. This rally should carry on a bit more prior to a wave 3 decline. Early strength this coming week would turn the gold stocks bullish short-term and confirm that the "b" wave rally is not over. Further weakness could very well confirm that it is and usher in the beginning  of a big "c" wave decline.

June 1, 2004:  The strong momentum generated the past week argues that the rally is not over and short-term we should see higher prices. The medium-term picture remains bearish but flexibility in regards to the momentum surge is required. The bond market remains bullish short-term but could be close to a correction. The current rally should be viewed as a correction of the decline from late March. The gold stocks are getting a bit overbought very short-term and could correct but the rally from  May 10 does not look complete.

May 17, 2004:  Over the very short-term the market can go either way but a rally from here would lead to a more serious decline while a decline barring an out and out collapse would lead to a better short-term rally. In either case the medium-term outlook remains bearish. The bonds are set for a short-term rally if it does unfold should be viewed as a counter trend wave 2 from the March 24 low. The gold stocks short-term are also in a position to rally. This could be a very strong move but it too should be viewed as a counter trend affair.

May 3, 2004:  Over the very short-term the market is again in a position to bounce but any bounce from current levels should be only a minor interruption of the decline on both a short and medium-term basis. The bonds are in their best position to rally on a short-term basis since the March 25 peak. We see any rally as a correction of the decline from March 25 and once complete a resumption of the decline is expected and the potential for an acceleration is high. The HUI is deeply oversold and can also bounce short-term. However any bounce that may occur will most likely be over quickly.

April 19, 2004:  The short-term bounced has served its purpose as the oversold condition from mid week last week has been relieve. While we may bounce a bit more the short-term decline looks ready to resume. Medium-term we remain bearish ands still expect to see the March 24 lows broken before a decent rally has a chance to unfold. The bonds are in a position to rally short-term but that would only serve to further confirm that the post August counter trend rally is complete. The gold stocks may rally a bit further over the near-term but that should be viewed within  the context of  negative medium-term picture.

April 5, 2004:  The counter trend  rally from March 24 looks to be nearly complete. We expect that the next leg down in the post March 5 decline is close to resuming. This is expected to carry the averages back below the March 24 low. The bonds are deeply oversold short-term and are in a position to bounce. How that bounce develops if it develops will tell us whether the post August rally is complete. The gold stocks are positive short-term but need to rally early this week to maintain that positive bias.

March 22, 2004:  The counter trend  rally from late last week does not look complete and as long as 1102 on the S&P holds a move back above last weeks high and towards more important resistance is expected. This should be followed by a resumption of the decline back below last weeks low. The bonds are bearish short-term but within the framework of  a maturing but incomplete medium-term rally. The gold stocks remain inconclusive short-term but a resolution should be close.

March 7, 2004:  Short-term the market looks to have some unfinished business on the upside but this is all part of a completion move from August and March and not the beginning of a new medium-term advance. The bonds too look to have some unfinished business on the upside but like the equity market they are closer to the end of a move than the early to middle stages of one. The HUI  is close to resolving its pattern from mid February. The positive divergence last week with gold does tilt the odds slightly in favor of a positive resolution but not enough yet to act on it.

February 23, 2004:  The technical picture continues to deteriorate and is in its worst position since the March low. While we cannot rule out one or even two more minor new highs everything continues to point to the idea that the market is in the process of completing an important medium and long-term top. The rally in bonds is corrective and most likely in its latter stages but does not yet look complete. The gold stocks are at an important medium-term juncture. continued weakness would signal the next leg down from the January top was underway while a move above last weeks high would set up for a test of the December/January double top.

February 9, 2004:  The rally from January 29 looks to be a counter trend move related to the January 26-29 decline. Once complete a move back below the January 29 low is expected. We do not see this decline as the end if the post October 2002 counter trend rally but as the beginning of the end. The rally from August on the bonds is most likely not over but it is nonetheless corrective and once complete should be followed by a strong decline well below the August low. The gold stocks look OK short-term but on a medium-term basis look to be in the early stages of the biggest decline since the November 2000 low.

January 26, 2004:  Short-term the market is in its best position to decline since mid November. The medium and long-term outlook continue to deteriorate and remain bearish but we do not think that any short-term decline from current levels will mark the beginning of the medium and long-term top not just yet. The bonds have satisfied the minimum requirements for the completion of the counter trend rally from August but have a ways to go before confirming the rally as complete. Short-term the gold stocks are neutral but the medium-term picture is negative and the odds are strong that we are in the beginning of the biggest correction since the late 2000 low.

January 5, 2004:  Short-term momentum is strong enough to argue for higher prices after any initial reaction.  The medium and long-term picture has continued to deteriorate and the technical evidence continues to paint a very negative picture. The bond market rally from August is corrective and once complete should be followed by a move below the August low. The bigger question is whether that counter trend rally is complete and at this point the answer is not clear. The gold stocks still have a shot at one more high as long as support at 220 holds. a break of that level turns the picture bearish.